Climate Change Splits Sister Species: One Beech Faces Greater Fragmentation
A new ecological modeling study reveals divergent climate vulnerabilities in two closely related beech tree species, *Fagus longipetiolata* and *F. lucida*, which are keystone components of China’s subtropical deciduous forests. Using MaxEnt models to project habitat suitability from the Last Glacial Maximum to future warming scenarios, researchers found that while both species’ high-suitability habitats are concentrated in the Yangtze River Basin, their sensitivities differ: *F. longipetiolata* is primarily driven by precipitation variables, whereas *F. lucida* is more temperature-sensitive. Under projected climate change, *F. lucida* exhibited significantly greater habitat fragmentation and more pronounced loss of high-suitability areas compared to its sister species, marking it as the more vulnerable of the two. This research underscores how even phylogenetically similar species can face starkly different threats from global warming, with direct implications for biodiversity conservation and forest resilience.
Why it might matter to you: For professionals focused on ecosystem services and conservation biology, this study provides a critical framework for prioritizing species-specific interventions. The findings highlight that conservation strategies cannot assume uniform climate resilience across related taxa, necessitating more nuanced, genomics-informed models for predicting population dynamics. This work directly aids in refining habitat restoration plans and setting urgent conservation priorities for maintaining ecological niches and forest structure under intensifying climate change.
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